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Avatar: The Way of Water is well on its way to a record-breaking box office run, but it won’t land among the Top 3 domestic films of 2022.
Avatar: The Way of Water is in the middle of what promises to be a record-breaking run, but it won’t be able to land in the domestic box office Top 3 for 2022. The film, which is the long-awaited sequel to the 2009 smash hit Avatar, features the return of director James Cameron as well as many key cast members including Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldaña, and Sigourney Weaver. The film is already No. 1 in international markets, however, inclement weather and heavy competition have prevented it from rising quite as quickly in the United States despite only taking two weeks to amass more than $1 billion worldwide.
Per Deadline, Avatar: The Way of Water‘s box office run is set to rise to a total of $433.1 million by the end of the four-day New Year holiday weekend. However, with just one day left to amass its 2022 total, it will fall short of breaking into the Top 3 domestic films of the year before New Year’s Day. It is currently projected to take the No. 4 slot (rising from its current position at No. 7) behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($411.3 million), Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($433.1 million), and Top Gun: Maverick ($718.3 million).
How Will Avatar: The Way of Water Rank Domestically When All Is Said & Done?
It has proven incredibly difficult to predict exactly how the big-budget Avatar: The Way of Water is going to perform, especially in the domestic box office. After a lukewarm opening weekend that fell considerably below projections at $134 million, some pundits speculated that it wouldn’t be able to reach the $2 billion mark, which Cameron has stated would only be its break-even point. However, the film has shown a strong hold over the box office, even showing some astonishing growth by logging the best Wednesday of the year in its second week and improving its third Friday over its second Friday.
However, weekend over weekend the film has taken in less and less overall, which is the typical trajectory for any new release theatrical film. To match the domestic total of the original Avatar, the film is still going to have to rake in an additional $352.1 million. This is entirely doable if it continues to hold audiences with very little drop over the next seven weeks. While that may prove difficult, it has little competition in January, with the only wide-release films set to make much of a blip on the radar being Blumhouse’s M3GAN on January 6, 2023 and perhaps the reboot of House Party on January 13, 2023.
However, even if Avatar: The Way of Water manages to surpass the original Avatar, that would still place it at only No. 4 on the domestic list. While sequels have the ability to surpass their original, it would be astonishing if the film proved able to leap even higher, knocking Avengers: Endgame ($858.3 million) or Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens ($936.6 million) off their perches at the No. 2 and No. 1 spots. However, it does have a fair shake at claiming No. 3 from Spider-Man: No Way Home ($814.1 million), though only time will tell.
Source: Deadline
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